Collins Stewart strategist remains positive on economic recovery

Thursday 22 April 2010

Collins Stewart Wealth Management global strategist Robert Jukes presented a positive outlook on the continued recovery of the economy at last month’s Chamber of Commerce lunch.

The macroeconomics specialist, who is based in London and has 13 years of industry experience, attributed his optimism to the fiscal action taken by policy makers, consumer spending, increased orders in the manufacturing sector, low interest rates and projected employment growth in the USA.

‘My outlook for growth this year and next is probably towards the upper end of what is credible, but that doesn’t make it unrealistic, it just means there are a lot of downside risks.’

‘I think you need to invest for the most likely outcomes and hedge for the risks, which means buying risk assets into this growth recovery’

Mr Jukes, who is a member of the Asset Allocation Committee and provides advice on global investment strategy for the wealth management division, said he was confident he would be proved correct and that interest rates, which would aid recovery further, would remain low for even longer than many expected.

‘Policy makers have done the right thing and consumers are starting to do the right thing too. They are spending.’

He said that growth is being driven by the consumer, especially in the United States of America.

‘The consumer is doing what it has always done and that is leading us out of a recession, just like it did during the oil crisis of 1974.’

He said that the level of growth had been under estimated.

‘We are seeing growth from the top down and the bottom up and this is very positive. By the end of the year we will no longer be looking back at the Credit Crunch but looking forward to substantial growth,’ he said.